To be a winner in the greatest, most complex puzzle ever invented you need an edge. Fortunately for us we have one.
After 9 years, thousands of hours, loss after loss after loss, sleepless nights, and one huge emotional roller coaster ride I have finally found a way to beat the markets.
Access to my signals and methods are now within a private blog and by invitation only.
Contact : firstname.lastname@example.org
Blog : manvswallstreet.tumblr.com
There will be no more updates on this blog.
My stockcharts.com public list will be deleted.
The supply and demand indicators are not shared anymore. on stockcharts.com
The new password protected blog at manvswallstreet.tumblr.com will be for invite only.
If you have an email from me it means you are one of the lucky ones.
Thank you all for the great support
If you want to contact me you can send an email to email@example.com
Markets are on way to making new all time highs again with increasing demand.
Here’s a snap shot of my Theta Delta Options Calculator.
Within it we can see where we could be after 5 days minus Theta (Time) + Delta (1 point moves)
For every 1 point that SPY moves up on a $1,000 trade we will see the position move up by $184.65 for the ATM 195 SEPT CALLs vs $289.49 198 SEPT CALLs
A 4 point move from here will double your money for the 198 CALLS
On a day to day basis the Delta and Theta will of course change but this just gives you a little heads up.
Anything less than SPY moving up higher than 1 point (10 points $SPX) will be negative for our position after 5 trading days.
Nice day for the markets (let it continue) with DEMAND at 365 vs SUPPLY at 198
SD20EMA is moving up nicely due to the RECENT days of DEMAND
A move above zero for the SD20EMA indicator will signal the start of a NEW DEMAND cycle.
Demand Cycles = Higher Highs
If SD20EMA moves above zero I believe we will see markets make new all time highs again.
The Exponential Moving Average differs from a Simple Moving Average both by calculation method and in the way that prices are weighted.
The Exponential Moving Average (shortened to the initials EMA) is effectively a weighted moving average. With the EMA, the weighting is such that the recent days prices are given more weight than older prices. The theory behind this is that more recent prices are considered to be more important than older prices, particularly as a long-term simple average (for example a 200 day) places equal weight on price data that is over 6 months old and could be thought of as slightly out-of-date.
I thought I would share with you how EMA’s are calculated as I had another nice little message from the Anon last night.
If my understanding is correct because we have had RECENT days of demand that will push the SD20EMA indicator higher.
Well there you go.
P.S we shouldn’t be hearing from that particular Anon (ass hole) again because I’ve been able to block his IP Address thanks to a unique setting on Tumblr :-)
I am tired of reading this negative, unproductive and totally BS commentary from Mr. Anonymous. I am glad you told him to STFU. There are people like this all over the world looking for negatives and create negative energy all the time. Unfortunately they offer nothing but negative comments. If Mr anonymous knows so much why does he have to read or write on this blog. Instead he should bet all his assets on his great ideas and leave us alone. he does not even have balls to put his name. Satish
I try to allow everyone a voice but from now on I think I’ll keep all the negative crap out.
The methods have proved themselves and they are here to help others beat the markets.
you still don't get why your SD20EMA will move up do you? Just look your SDNET numbers for the past two days it went from 463 to 9 today but your SD20EMA still went down. Is it because demand was increasing? It is magic? No and No! Its because how the EMA is calculated. I honestly don't you actually understand your own indicator!!! Riddle me this the market is up $1+ since your entry how much is your spy position up? Another thing you don't really understand. Option pricing!
No I don’t get it do I…. I only invented the bloody thing.
SD20EMA is moving higher numb nuts not lower. SD20EMA moving higher (not lower) is EXACTLY what we want to see. If it was moving lower I would have concerns. BUT NO NO NO it is moving higher. Oh I wonder why it is moving higher. Is it the way it is calculated or is something happening within the daily SDNET numbers ????
No I don’t understand Option pricing do I ? …. Fuck sake
Riddle me this… The option position I have is down because of time decay…. So what… it’s down… wooooo hooooo…. I don’t care where it is right now…. The cycle isn’t over you idiot.
It’s not the end of the world…. If the markets turn down they turn down…. so what… You can’t tell me you know where the markets will be be tomorrow… no one does.
It’s a calculated gamble….. for fuck sake.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again for you because I don’t think you get it “WAIT until after the cycle has finished” before making stupid remarks about the methods.
If you don’t want to follow my methods go away or are you are just here to watch me fail. If that’s the case you must be one very sad individual.
Go and have a few mouth fulls of this stuff
SPY has is up 1.03 points on the 7th trading day. I’ve spoken about how the 5th, 7th and 10th trading days are important because if SPY isn’t shown to be up within any of those days i believe that the markets will turn in to a full blown bear market.
So for SPY to be up on the 5th and now 7th trading day this has me believe that if the markets are not going in to a full blown bear market the only other way they can go is UP.
SD20EMA is moving higher and higher and is now at -132.28 which is still below zero but trending in the right direction fro higher prices.
When SD20EMA is below zero and moving higher it’s a sign that big / smart money is entering the markets again. The dumb money hasn’t yet caught on to the fact that we are going to see higher prices because the dumb money is looking for confirmation from all the lagging price indicators.
When the dumb money finally starts to believe in the move the smart money will be getting out.
The cycles always repeat and this time will be no different.
I have an 85% chance that this trade will turn out to be a winner. If it turns out to be a losing trade so be it. Losing doesn’t bother me. The only time I hate losing is when I don’t stick to my trading plan.
Right now that trading plan is to sit tight and only sell when SD20EMA moves back below zero after being above zero OR when SD20EMA moves back below it’s own 5 DAY MA when above zero. Whatever comes first.
hey i just some numbers going back to 1990 (stockcharts goes back that far) and i used the same rules that you use but instead of 1300 i've used -250 its amazing the results. I've also found that when you get two buy signals within 10 days of one another that its a very powerful signal if you can stay in the trade. The NYAD is the number of stocks that have advanced versus those that declined. I'm curious as to how your supply and demand indicator differs. What are you scanning for?
Good work :-)
see previous post
I respectfully disagree with your statement that your methods do not follow price. If you are using and type of scanning technology price is somehow a factor. Be it stocks that are above a certain moving average or stocks that have moves a specific percentage or what not the baseline is that movement is a derivative of price. So if you are scanning its related to price. All charts and indicators are based on price movement unless you are using volume or time function into your calculation.
Very well said and I agree with you to a certain extent. If I divulge anymore I will be giving vital clues away as to how I obtain my numbers.
The numbers are obtained from all US stocks and if course every stock has its price. But types of movement within all those stocks paint a picture for where we are in regards to supply and demand.
That supply and demand ultimately pushes the markets higher or lower. The market price is the result of that battle between supply and demand.
I’m sorry for these quick answers because I’m replying on my iPhone. I really need to be in front of my computer and keyboard to answer these great questions in more detail.
You had me thinking so i looked at the $NYAD on stockcharts and used a 20EMA and 5MA as you do and used a -250 trigger and a cross over of the 20EMA and 5MA as a exit signal and you will be surprised how well it works. I guess in essence it is the same the NYAD measures the difference between supply and demand defined as advancing issues (demand) minus declining issues (supply). So i guess its all how you measure supply and demand. NYAD works very well. Check it out. Thanks again.
I scan the markets using up to 6 different websites and brokerage scanning systems and add up all the numbers that they spit out.
That’s as much as I can tell you really without giving away my methods.
The SD20EMA is taken from the daily difference between SUPPLY and DEMAND totals that the scans pick up.
I’ve had numerous people tell me about the $NYAD :-)
I can tell you that my methods do not follow price. They are separate from price so they are not dependant on price.
Price is an illusion. Supply and Demand is the truth.
I thank you for taking the time in asking the questions. It’s very much appreciated.
I think your SD20EMA will move higher but it has little to do with what the market is doing. Instead it is based on how it is calculated. EMA 's are front weighted so any day with a large SD number will skew the numbers initially and become less and less important as the days go by because their weight is reduced as part of the calculation. So unless you get a daily SD that is no less than the current 20SDEMA value the indicator will continue to move up or go sideways at the very least.
You make a lot of valid points and I of course welcome that but SD20EMA shows us exactly what is going on behind the scenes because supply and demand is what ultimately makes price.
When SD20EMA is above zero it’s a sign that the markets are in a demand cycle.
Demand = higher prices
And when above zero the SD20EMA can downtrend but it’s still demand. When above zero and down trending its a sign of big money getting out vs dumb money getting in and the cycles repeat and repeat.
You can’t trade from the SD20EMA it’s there as just an observation as to what’s going on behind price.
Thanks for the comment
SD20EMA has turned up and is now above its own 5 day MA. That’s a bullish sign.
We are looking for SD20EMA to move higher and cross the zero line for start of a new DEMAND cycle.
THE TRADING PLAN :
We will SELL when SD20EMA moves back below its own 5 Day MA when above zero.
So your exit condition isn't an either or condition but really arbitrary meaning that the 5ma can cross below the 20SDEMA and you will still will be in the trade because you will just 'hope' it will go up. Also you didn't really answer the question as to why you use a 5 SMA my guess is that was an arbitrary decision as well. Not to sound snarky but there doesn't seem to be any real defined trading plan when it comes to managing the trade only how to get into the trade which anyone can do. .
I answered the exit questions and it’s all backed up by historical facts.
If we get a sell signal below zero it isn’t going to be a very strong one so it PAYS to wait it out…
Did I mention the word HOPE ?
NO I DIDNT
The sell signals are all part of the plan… Look at past charts and you’ll see the exit strategies in plain text and in plain sight.
The 5 MA is a better suited indicator for following the SD20EMA. If I used a 5 EMA that would be the same as a SD100EMA and with hindsight of all the historical data the 5 MA outperforms the 5EMA WHEN FOLLOWING THE SD20EMA INDICATOR.
Stop being a jerk